The way things have been going, the Democratic primary season in 2016 is going to be such a bore to write about, since the frontrunner is Secretary Clinton, by a mile. If she does run, which I think she will, I think she will be a lock for the nomination and probably for the White House, as well. Her deep connections to the Democratic Establishment, relative distance from the unpopular Obama Administration, experience, name, and prestige among the party faithful make her the odds-on favorite to represent the Democrats in 2016. But if she decides not run, what options do the Democrats have? Do they have a deep bench (as the Republicans certainly do) that could provide them a candidate anywhere close to the caliber of Hillary Clinton?
The short answer is no. Sure, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have devoted followers, but they are the left’s equivalent of Ron Paul- figures who can inspire, to an almost cult-like level, ideological activists but who lack any sense of crossover appeal. The chances that Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina give their votes to a proud Socialist are roughly the chances that Vermont will give its Electoral College votes to Rick Perry- practically zero. Liz Warren will fare little better in states south of New Jersey and east of California. They are just too far to the left to win a national race.
Okay, then, do the Democrats have any young, rising stars (think President Obama) among their ranks? Kind of… but not really. I think their brightest star is Virginia’s Tim Kaine, a moderate, likable Virginian who is about as close to the ideological center as one will find in the modern Democratic Party (Joe Manchin, aside). It would not surprise me in the slightest to see Kaine tapped as Clinton’s running mate in two years. Cory Booker may also be a rising star, but we really do not know too much about him, yet. I do not think Julian Castro is a true contender, at least not yet. If he ever manages to win a statewide race in Texas, however, that will catapult him to superstar status within the Democratic ranks. For now, though, I see the Democrats as the party of old, entrenched incumbents, not the party of promising young talent (which the Republicans have with Marco Rubio, Cory Gardner, Joni Ernst, Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, Nikki Haley, Susana Martinez, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Mike Lee, Tim Scott, Mia Love, Brian Sandoval, Aaron Schock, and others). I just do not see a deep bench of young talent among the Democrats, right now. They have a few promising young stars, but only Kaine really sticks out right now.
What about the other Democrats who are poised to run? Well, the Vice President seems certain to run, but I cannot see Joe Biden rising above the narrative of being a gaffe machine. Between that and his age, I just do not expect Biden’s campaign to have a reasonable shot of victory. Martin O’Malley, it is widely known among us political junkies, is also launching a bid, but he has no name recognition outside of Maryland. And, I think his liberalism will be too far from the center for a nation weary of eight years of far left rule. The same goes for Andrew Cuomo. The Democrats really do not have anybody to offer from swing states like Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina (or even Iowa, for that matter). So, in short, all of the Democrats who plan to run, aside from Clinton, promise nothing but disaster.
It is possible, of course, that a dark horse might steal the show. Perhaps a Montanan, like Max Baucus or Brian Schweitzer, could run a populist campaign that pulls off upsets no one expected. Maybe Jim Webb or Joe Manchin could shock the political world by running a centrist campaign mirroring that of Bill Clinton in 1992. Perhaps an old-timer like Tom Vilsack, Tom Harkin, Howard Dean, or Ed Rendell could run a strong liberal campaign to unexpected victory (of these, I think only Rendell and Vilsack could do it). Or, maybe a complete unknown at this point, such as Senator Amy Klobuchar, Governor John Hickenlooper, or Senator Kirsten Gillibrand will pull off an Obama-style victory. I doubt that any of these names will be the Democratic nominee in 2016, but as 1992 and 2008 taught us, anything is possible.
Right now, all the Democratic chips are in on a run by Hillary Clinton. Unlike the Republicans, who have an embarrassment of riches right now, the Democrats do not have a deep bench of promising talent for the national stage. Instead, many of the big names in the Democratic Party are, ironically, rather old (including Clinton, herself). If Hillary chooses not to run, the Democrats will be in disarray in 2016, not from abundance of talent, but a complete dearth of talent. If Joe Biden is the standard bearer for the Democrats in two years, I expect we will see a changing of the guard at the White House. Even if Hillary does run, the reality that she is their only viable candidate right now should be disconcerting for her party.